Vote counting begins in Irish elections

Vote counting has begun for the Irish general election as exit polls suggest tight competition between the three main parties.

Friday’s exit poll favors Sinn Féin. slightly ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in first preference votes.

A record 174 Teachtaí Dála (TDs) are expected to be elected, up from 160 in 2020 following a reshuffle of constituencies.

There are currently 43 Dáil constituencies (up from 39 in 2020), each of which will elect between three and five TDs.

One seat in the House of Representatives goes to the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker), so 88 TDs are required for an absolute majority.

More than 680 candidates competed for the remaining 173 seats.

The counting of votes in more than 40 centers across the republic began at 09:00 local time, with the first results expected later in the evening.

New trends

Aoife Moore from BBC News NI in Dublin

Early data predicts disappointment for some government ministers.

While not all boxes are open, trends are starting to emerge.

In Wicklow, which has four seats, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly is fifth.

Health has been a hot topic in the election campaign as waiting lists continue to grow.

Taoiseach (Prime Minister of Ireland) Simon Harris is running in the same constituency and is leading according to preliminary counts.

In Dublin, in the Mid-West, Green Party children’s minister Roderick O’Gorman is in trouble at this early stage and is currently in sixth place.

O’Gorman found himself in the unenviable position of being responsible for the integration and accommodation of asylum seekers – something the current government has struggled to manage amid a campaign of disinformation from the far right and a lack of available beds for refugees.

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is likely to take the top seat in the Dublin Central constituency.

Social Democrat Gary Gannon and Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe also look secure in their seats.

The final seat is likely to be a close race between Labor senator Marie Sherlock and Gerard Hutch.

What did Friday’s exit poll show?

Figures released at 10pm local time showed Sinn Féin with 21.1% of the first preference vote, Fine Gael with 21% and Fianna Fáil in third place with 19.5%.

He also suggested that 20% of the second preference votes would go to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin getting 17%.

The exit poll was conducted by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin and is based on 5,018 completed interviews outside polling stations.

Its error is 1.4%.

The results also show a close race between the smaller parties, with Labor, the Green Party and the Social Democrats separated by less than 2%.

In the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin received 24.53% of the first preference vote, Fianna Fáil received 22.18% and Fine Gael 20.86%.

Support for independent candidates appears to have fallen if exit poll data reflects the final result, from 15% in 2020 to 12%.

Some other figures from Friday’s exit poll showed a gender gap between different political parties and which parties voters gave their second preference to.

Analysis

If the exit poll is correct, Sinn Fein is likely to win the popular vote for a second general election in a row.

But, as in 2020, she has no clear path to power.

Outgoing coalition partners Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are well positioned to secure the necessary votes to return to the government benches with the support of a smaller party.

If the polls are correct, the pair could come back with 75-80 seats, leaving them 88 seats short of the required majority.

Sinn Féin hopes its results will be better than the polls show, as it did in 2020.

But this may not be enough to form a coalition of left-wing parties, excluding Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

How will votes be counted?

The Republic of Ireland elects its government using a system of proportional representation known as the only transferable vote.

Voters rank the candidates in their district in order of preference, and candidates must receive a certain number of votes to be elected.

Ballots are counted in several rounds.

Each ballot is initially counted towards the first option.

Once a candidate receives the required number of votes, he is elected, and any remaining ballots he has marked as first choice are transferred to the second preference ranking.

Ballots continue to be passed on to the next preference level until all seats in a district are filled with candidates who have reached the quota.

“There will be winners and losers”

Kevin Sharkey from BBC News NI in Dublin

The wait is almost over for hundreds of party and independent candidates contesting the Irish general election.

There will be winners and losers until today, and again tomorrow.

For some, the agonizing wait could last until early next week.

Once all the seats are filled, the next stage of the process will begin – the formation of a new government.

Unless these results produce a radically different result than the exit poll, it appears that the two senior parties in the outgoing government, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, may be well positioned to return to government.

Sinn Féin will still want to try to find a path to government, but the odds may not be in the party’s favor even if it performs better than its exit polls indicate.

So the party, which campaigned on a demand for a change of direction and ultimately a change in government, may have to prepare for another term on the Opposition benches in the House.

This is not where Mary Lou McDonald wanted to lead her party.

When will the results be known?

Because of the voting system, counting votes can sometimes take several days, and forming a government can take even longer.

It took four months after the last general election in 2020 before Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party reached an agreement to form a government.

Sinn Féin has become the leading opposition party, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael already ruling them out as potential coalition partners.

The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) will take place on December 18, but it is unlikely that coalition negotiations will be completed by then.

The government will be formally formed when the Dáil votes to appoint a new Taoiseach (Prime Minister of Ireland), but this is not expected to happen until 2025.

Will election results coverage on BBC Two NI at 18:00 GMT on Saturday and on BBC One NI on Sunday Politics at 10:00 GMT.

The BBC News NI website will have the latest updates page open over the weekend.