Trump’s proposed tariffs won’t solve our fentanyl crisis.

Earlier this week, President-elect Donald Trump announced that he intends to punish all Americans because some Americans buy illegal drugs from dealersmost of whom pay US citizens to smuggle them through legal border crossings. Through increased tariffsTrump wants to force Americans to pay more for goods, including domestic inputs imported from Canada, China and Mexico (our three largest trading partners) until the US wins. war on drugs.

According to The New York TimesTrump believes China can do a better job of stopping the flow of Chinese fentanyl precursors to transnational cartels in Mexico, where they synthesize fentanyl in clandestine laboratories. But fentanyl precursors also come from India, Myanmar and other parts of the world. Southeast Asia. AND Canadian traffickers recently began producing fentanyl in “superlabs” and smuggling it into the United States, Australia and New Zealand. If China cracks down on domestic precursor laboratories, it will mean more business for dealers in these countries.

We are waging a war on drugs it’s like playing a game of whack-a-mole.

Trump may not realize that he is punishing law-abiding Americans for violating drug prohibition because he misunderstands tariffs. During his first term, Trump imposed steep tariffs on imports of solar panels, washing machines, steel, aluminum and about 70% of all products from China.

Despite his repeated claims to the contrary, tariffs are taxes (almost always) paid by Americans, not foreigners. Countless academic studies by university economists, think tanks and government agencies have shown that American consumers – both businesses and individuals – paid (and continue to pay) for Trump’s tariffs.

Given that Mexico, Canada and China are three of the United States’ largest trading partners, the pain for American consumers will be especially acute. American consumers purchased approximately $1.5 trillion worth of goods and services from the three countries. Envelope calculations by Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at Yale University’s Budget Lab and former economist for President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, suggest tariffs of an annual tax increase of nearly $1,200 for the average American family..

American firms will also face serious consequences. The tariffs would disrupt the tightly integrated supply chains that stretch across North America and are linked by the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), one of the signature initiatives of the first Trump administration. An import tax of 25% would be disastrous for automakers in particular; stock GM, Ford and Stellantis (owner of Jeep, Chrysler and Ram) fell after the tariff threat.

Likewise, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested that Mexico will likely retaliate against the tariffs, and China and Canada will almost certainly do the same. Given that U.S. firms export nearly $1 trillion in goods and services to these three countries, retaliatory tariffs would jeopardize millions of jobs supported by exports to these three countries.

In short, broad-based tariffs like those threatened by the President-elect would increase the tax burden on American businesses and families, drive down wages, reduce consumption, stifle investment, reduce exports, and reduce aggregate welfare.

Moreover, in the unlikely event that Trump’s tariffs make it more difficult for drug traffickers to obtain fentanyl precursors, drug traffickers may find it more attractive to drug traffickers. transition from fentanyl to nitazenes.

Nitazenes, more details dangerous and powerful than fentanyl, belong to a class of benzimidazoles commonly used in drugs such as antacids, antifungals and blood pressure medications, making their precursors widely available. The change is already underway. Isotonitazene (“iso”), which has been linked to overdoses in the United States since 2019, causes “Second wave” of the drug crisis in the UK

President Ronald Reagan famously stated that we and our trading partners are in the same boat. If one partner punches a hole in the boat (subject to tariffs), it makes no sense for the other partner to punch another hole in the boat.

Trump is determined to poke holes in the bottom of our boat until Canada, China and Mexico are forced – one way or another – to help us win the endless, unwinnable war on drugs.

During his election campaign, Trump promised to take the United States out of endless wars. Instead, he will force Americans to pay endless taxes.